Paradox
There's no right answer to this, but I'd be curious to hear yours and your reasoning. I plan to make a cartoon strip of this one for a certain web site and do a real-time poll (isn't the internet a great place to do experiments on people?!) It's called Newcomb's Problem.
So, there is this great scientist and she has a 100% track record in predicting people's responses. She claims to have discovered a patented formula for doing so, and it's been validated by the NSA, AMA and the International Board of Ostrich Herders.
She puts down two black boxes down in front of you labeled A and B. She tells you that A has $1000 dollars in it. Now you can choose either box B or both boxes.
"And, by the way", she says, "I have predicted of course, whether you will choose box B or both boxes. If I predicted you will choose just box B, I have put one million dollars in box B. If I predicted you will choose both, I've put nothing in box B."
And now she let's you choose. Do you take box B or do you take both boxes?
(Remember, this isn't a trick problem. Everything above is accurate. Don't worry about not being able to fit a million dollars in that little black box, maybe it's an IOU which she'll pay out on the spot. If it's not empty, that is.)
Which option do you choose?
(The funny thing is, most people think the answer is obvious; even funnier, about half pick on option and half the other. So do explain your reasoning!)
So, there is this great scientist and she has a 100% track record in predicting people's responses. She claims to have discovered a patented formula for doing so, and it's been validated by the NSA, AMA and the International Board of Ostrich Herders.
She puts down two black boxes down in front of you labeled A and B. She tells you that A has $1000 dollars in it. Now you can choose either box B or both boxes.
"And, by the way", she says, "I have predicted of course, whether you will choose box B or both boxes. If I predicted you will choose just box B, I have put one million dollars in box B. If I predicted you will choose both, I've put nothing in box B."
And now she let's you choose. Do you take box B or do you take both boxes?
(Remember, this isn't a trick problem. Everything above is accurate. Don't worry about not being able to fit a million dollars in that little black box, maybe it's an IOU which she'll pay out on the spot. If it's not empty, that is.)
Which option do you choose?
(The funny thing is, most people think the answer is obvious; even funnier, about half pick on option and half the other. So do explain your reasoning!)
For goodness sake, what does the ostrich board have to do with this? Is this for real? The other two if the initials are real, I recognize but this one I don't.
ReplyDeleteOh yes, the Ostrich Board is quite involved in the science of prognostication; primarily due to the fragile sensibilities of their protectorate in the face of the unexpected.
ReplyDelete